Road pricing likely by 2020s

CILT predicts the principle of 'user pays' will become increasingly important as it unveils its Vision 2035 document

While road pricing is unlikely to be introduced in the current parliament, the Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport predicts in its Vision 2035 document that the principle of user pays is likely to play an increasingly important role.

The document outlines a wide range of predicted trends and potentially disruptive factors on the horizon. The vision is based on CILT membership experience, as opposed to professional research. The theories are backed up by evidence, with consensus a key principle.

Sir David Rowlands, CB FCILT and former senior civil servant at the Department for Transport said: "Government has a relatively short term fix on roads, with hard shoulder running, for example, but will run into capacity issues.

"In addition, the tax base from motorists will shrink. Electric cars and the increased fuel efficiency of diesel will mean fuel duty raised will shrink rapidly. These factors will come together at some point. People must pay the proper price for using roads and that will come in the form of road pricing, maybe in the 2020s." The CILT acknowledges there is a long way to go before the electorate will sign up to road pricing but says Government should shift emphasis on the debate from technical solutions and start engaging the electorate in a proper discussion of choices society will face, from congestion leading to gridlock, to rationing of road use, and building more roads.

Sir David added: "If we assume 2% annual GDP growth, which is reasonable despite current economic difficulties, the UK's economy will double in 35 years. This will put greater strain on infrastructure. As we live on a small island, we can't build a way out, so road pricing becomes a sensible option." The CILT sees logistics partnerships playing an increasing role over the coming 25 years. In freight transport it predicts we will see increasing agility and flexibility in the supply chain by 2035.

The report predicts factors such as sharing data, standardising business processes, pooling vehicle and warehouse capacity, automated warehousing, and collaborative partnerships have the potential to increase efficiency.

The CILT also cautions, however, that these partnerships may fall foul of competition law if the cooperation is perceived to have a cartel effect on pricing, so regulatory factors will have to be carefully negotiated.

Sir David said: "We are beginning to see logistics partnerships, for example, regarding the Olympics. There will be lessons learned there for sure, and if we can come out of the Olympics with a legacy of collaboration it will be very positive." New technology could fundamentally alter the transport and logistics landscape over the next 25 years, according to the report.

The report envisages intelligent highways. This could deliver a spine of inter-regional automated highway lanes, segregated for freight and car traffic. Effectively vehicles would drive themselves before reverting to manual control for the last leg of the journey.

The report even imagines underground freight pods, which have been suggested as a way of removing freight from roads by developing dedicated underground freight pipelines.

Cargo would be moved in lightweight pods. Powered by electric linear induction motors, these pods could run at up to 50km/h and carry up to 8/10t.

CILT also sees the development of smart grids, which aims to optimise energy supply by supplying electricity as and when it is needed to certain applications as a crucial enabler for greater use of electric vehicles.

"A new smart battery recharging infrastructure would be part of this vision, enabling cars to be charged automatically from roadside cables via electromagnetic fields when parked above a charging plate," says the report.

Perhaps closer to the present day, the CILT noted the emergence of CAD-CAM technologies, could lead to a decentralising trend in manufacturing with attendant implications for the supply chain. The report also predicts social networking could be used "to drive more efficient and effective supply chains" allowing consumers much greater product and price selectivity. Online choices taking account of the end-to-end carbon footprint of the supply chain when making purchasing decisions are also expected to come more commonplace.

You can read Vision 2035 on the CILT website.